Where the Region’s Capital Is Actually Moving
Rate-path repricing has done more to move regional flows this quarter than any single data print.
Rami HaddadSenior market strategist
Two-year yields drifting higher while the front end stalls tells you positioning is defensive, not directional — and that shows up first in metals.
Commodity volatility is the tell. Gold’s refusal to break 2,374 through three separate dollar rallies suggests real-money accumulation underneath, not speculative froth. Energy is doing the opposite: every bid gets sold into the settlement window.
Base case: dollar strength persists into the next FOMC with gold ranging 2,374–2,418. Risk case: a soft CPI print breaks 2,418 and invalidates the whole defensive read — below 2,365 the thesis is simply wrong.
Range reversion holds while 2,374 survives the London fix.
Rami Haddad, senior market strategist
The levels
- Resistance — 2,418
- Support — 2,374
- Invalidation — below 2,365