US wholesale prices rose 6.3% annually in September, largest gain since 2022
Producer prices topped the Dow Jones consensus, which had looked for a 5.5% annual rise and a 0.6% monthly increase.
By BBCorp
What happened
US producer prices increased 6.3% from a year earlier in September, the biggest annual gain since 2022.
The outcome came in above expectations. The consensus estimate compiled by Dow Jones had pointed to a monthly rise of 0.6% and an annual rise of 5.5%.
Why it matters
Producer prices track costs at the wholesale stage of the economy and are watched as an early read on pipeline pressure that can feed through to consumer prices. An inflation reading that lands above the consensus estimate tends to shift expectations for the path of Federal Reserve policy and for interest rates across the curve.
Those rate expectations are a core input for the dollar, for gold, which pays no yield, and for equity valuations that discount future earnings. Oil and crypto are also sensitive to changes in rate and growth expectations and to dollar strength, so a surprise in inflation data can widen trading ranges across several of these markets at once.
What to watch
Attention turns to how the September producer price figure is read alongside further US inflation releases and the consensus estimates compiled by Dow Jones, and to Federal Reserve commentary on the inflation outlook.
Markets in play
- USDExposure: HighInflation data above the consensus estimate directly affects expectations for the path of US interest rates and the dollar.
- GoldExposure: MediumGold pays no yield, so it reacts to shifts in US rate expectations and in the dollar following inflation surprises.
- US stocksExposure: MediumWholesale cost pressure and changing rate expectations affect margin assumptions and equity valuations.
USD
Gold