Trump Rules Out Iran Deal as Reports Point to Renewed US Strikes

What happened

US President Donald Trump said he does not want a deal with Iran. NBC News reported that the president and his national security team have discussed the possibility of resuming large-scale US military operations in the coming weeks, with preparations described as including a massive bombing campaign.

Separately, Mark Esper, who served as US Secretary of Defense during Trump's first term, said he does not see the conflict with Iran ending in the foreseeable future, and argued that a prolonged war works to the advantage of America's greatest adversary.

Why it matters

Escalation involving Iran sits close to the main shipping and production routes of the global energy market, so headlines about possible strikes tend to move the risk premium attached to crude and refined products. Energy costs in turn feed into inflation expectations, which is one of the channels through which geopolitics reaches rate expectations and currency markets.

Open-ended military conflict also tends to shift demand between assets seen as havens and assets seen as risk-sensitive. Gold and the US dollar are commonly used as defensive holdings in such phases, while equity indices and crypto are more exposed to swings in overall risk appetite. Comments from former officials do not change policy, but they shape how market participants judge how long an episode may last.

What to watch

Further statements from Trump and his national security team on whether large-scale operations resume, any official confirmation or denial of the reported planning, Iran's response on negotiations, and additional commentary from former defense officials such as Mark Esper on the expected duration of the conflict.